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Hi ... Welcome to the RE/MAX Market Reports FAQ.

You are probably registered for monthly stats reports and have  many questions on how these Stats can help you price your home in any market place:

  1. Home Evaluator New
  2. Home Forecasting New
  3. %SOLD Absorption Rates (STR)
  4. Sales Discount Rates (SDR)
  5. Home Price Index; (HPI) &  (HPIp)
  6. Projecting Buyer Confidence:
  7. Market Trend Indicators ( MTI )
  8. Printing Instructions
  9. Website tune-ups
  10. Assistant Services: Newsletter printing, emailing or office administration:
 

    Home Evaluator; (HEV)                                                                                             FAQ MENU

Why and How? The Home Evaluator is a great indicator of Market changes for individual homes.

Benefits Realtors can now demonstrate the previous market history and a homes price changes to better show trends to enable the home seller . buyer to make a more informed decision.

 This Evaluation Algorithm is based on the most accurate Home Price Index HPIp (Paired Sales analysis) for 17 cites and 114 sub areas.* The values from current to 2005 are based on using the most accurate paired sales methodology and prior to 2005 are combinations of several general HPI's and are less accurate. 

How Accurate are these results: Currently the initial Evaluator results for the Top 50% and Lower 50% market areas are deemed to be accurate 33% of the time within a 3.7% margin.  This is great help to the Real Estate Industry as only 18.3% of all the residential MLS listings in the lower mainland in the last 12 months (July 2012-2013) were listed at a price to sell and sold and within 3.7% of list price. The  63.5% that did not sell were priced over ~15% too high. keyword: EvaluatorEvaluator
Note: the Average HPIp is an average of the the Top 50% and Lower 50% HPIp's and are therefore less accurate.  Please use the Top or Lower Market Evaluator for most calculations

 

To Calculate Your Home Value for a Comparative Market Analysis CMA,  find your; City, Home type, and Market Range.
Input your previous purchase details: date and price.

Final adjustments to increase accuracy: The VMR Evaluator value is based on the subject home being in the same relative condition as purchased .
To complete the Evaluation one needs to factor in Depreciation / Renovation adjustments, Home Display, Land Us and 
Neighbourhood changes: see details

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   Forecasting; (FRCT)                            FAQ MENU

Why? The  Home Value Forecaster is a great Trend Indicator of Market Changes for individual home owners and investors as it offers both the Positive and the Negative Forecasts

The #2 Real Estate Question "is this a  good time to Sell or Buy? In other words is the the market going up or down?

To Calculate your Home's Future Value Forecast + or -, firstly find the correct City and Home type (Single Family Detached, Condo or Townhouse).
Then calculate the current value of your home by inputting it's previous purchase price and that purchase date.

Now click View 2 Year Forecast to see the forecasts for your home that are based on the votes of our active Realtors.

Customize Your Own Forecast: you can input Your Own Personal Forecast Annual Values for the both the Positive and Negative changes for next year and the graph will change accordingly.

Final adjustments to increase accuracy: The VMR Forecaster value is based on the subject home being in the same relative condition in the future .
To complete the Evaluation one has to factor in Depreciation and planned Renovations, Land Use changes
and Neighbourhood changes: see details

How Accurate are the forecasts: Our Forecasting Algorithm is based on an active survey of top Realtors in the Lower Mainland. We are asking 1,000's of agents that sell the top 90% of the Real Estate to give us their opinion on the future market changes. Please vote now!  I highly recommend Agents review the latest economic news and the direction of the our Canadian Finance Minister, our Bank of Canada Governor and our own Economic Forecaster from BC CREA (Links). Currently all of our Market Forecasts are based on Single Family Detached Homes.

How it works: One single Home Price Index spanning Detached Homes and Condos and Townhouses for all price bands does not work as they represent very different buyer groups and financing . Any city can have one market segment go up while another goes down; for example in Burnaby since June 2008 we see a 34% increase in High End ( Top 50%) Single Family Detached Home Values,  at the same time we see a 23% increase in the Lower 50% SFD and a 2% decrease in Condos prices. To increase the accuracy of our Forecaster we have broken all Markets into Home types: SFD , Condos and Townhomes and then we further split out the Top 50% and the Lower 50%. (YTD Market Changes for 14 cities Click Here)

(*Note:  We build out HPIp's  in 2-3 new market areas per month, do put in your request for a missing area.)

 

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Home Price Index; (HPI)                            FAQ MENU

 

In the Pursuit of Accuracy

Sept 2013; Great news we now have released our MOST accurate HPI the Paired Home Price Indexes HPIfor 17 cities between West Vancouver and Chilliwack. The HPIp is calculated comparing each sale to it's previous purchase price after 2005 thus determining the exact price changes for the exact same home for those time periods. These Apple to Apple paired sales data is now reflected into the average market price change for those cities as HPIp.

Split Market area into top & bottom: Each of these HPIp indices now have their market place split into the Top 50% and the Lower 50%. These two markets represent very different buyer groups; for example many Multi-Millionaire or Billionaires buyers will pay cash for their high end homes and the right Ocean View or Feng Shui can make a big difference in the sale prices. Now at the same time the lower 50% purchases can represent local buyers that are subject to local consumer confidence, employment, and conventional financing rules of the day.

Watch the Movie to see the difference in the various Home Price Indices in Westside Vancouver

Notes: The HPIp prior to 2005 are combinations of several general HPI's and are less accurate. 
            The Average HPIp is an average of the Top 50% and Lower 50% HPIp's and are therefore less accurate.  
             Please use the Top or Lower Market Evaluator for most calculations

The RE/MAX Market Reports Home Price Indexes (RMR.HPIhave being replaced with the new HPIin 80% of the Greater Vancouver market places. The RMR.HPI algorithm is based on adjusting a 25% weighting for both the Homes Size, Lot size, and a 12.5% weighting for Age.  In 2012, we removed all the New and the 1 Year Old Homes from the Index because some Sales Include HST-GST, while some Rebate the HST - GST to the Builder, thus creating fluctuations of 15% Up or Down depending on how the final sale is reported.

The 2012 RMR HPI was calculated using the Middle 50% of the Sales: The Top 25% and the Bottom 25% of all Detached Sales are excluded from the RMR.HPI calculations.

DO REMEMBER: Any Home Price Index is only a relative indicator of Home Price Changes and is not an accurate determination of your own personal home price change.  Please call me for an Accurate Up-to-Date Comparative Market Analysis for your Home, along with a Winning Strategy for Success.

It is our goal to replace all RMR HPI with split the Top 50% , Bottom 50% and the Paired study data HPIp over time. Each city takes about 2 weeks work so  do request your city be but at the top of the list.

The Past Home Price Indexes can produce HORRIBLE Indicators of Market Changes.  Currently most Real Estate Board Sales Indexes or Averages include Foreclosures, Grow-ops, and/or Homes with unique Value-Added features like views, as well as blending 2 bedroom homes with the 9 bedroom homes in the mix for calculations.  Not to mention Homes with High Lot/Land Value, Homes with Lower Lot/Land Value; the right or wrong feng shui, all the while making little to no adjustments for the Actual Square Footage of the homes to determine the Average Price (HPI), thus creating incorrect fluctuations in the Index.

1.  THIS SIMPLY DOES NOT WORK!  For example, if the High End Market actually drops by say $100,000, and more High End Homes sell that month than Low End Homes, then this old style  HPI (Average) shows that the PRICES WENT UP... INSTEAD OF DOWN???

2.        Recently the Vancouver and Fraser Valley Real Estate Boards have developed an new National MLS HPI. We do publish both indexes in our Reports which are identified with these colors;  MLS HPI ----  or our HPIp

3. Many Realtors use the Average or Median Home Sales Prices as a changing market indicator for their sellers and buyers. This will most often show complete opposites to the real price changes and since they usually cause confusion to Most Home Sellers Buyers and even many Realtors as they are the worst indicator of market changes.  See Movie



 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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  %SOLD Absorption Rates ( STR  the Sell-Through-Rates/month)  FAQ  MENU

This is a very useful tool to determine if the Market is going Up or Down at this exact time to help our Sellers recognize the Best Price
for their property in today’s Market Conditions.

 We update the %SOLD rate for all lower mainland cities every two weeks so you and your clients know if we are in or trending towards
a Buyers or Sellers Market.

 

Sales: How are they calculated?

The Sales in the Monthly STR are calculated using the date the Sale is reported and Processed by the individual Real Estate Boards. 

How do we Determine the STR with 2 weeks of data?  The %SOLD rate is always reported as a monthly index (see the math)

Why this date? ...It is because the Sold Date is a Moving Number.

How? ...There is a varying time lag of the Sales being reported to the Real Estate Boards, so the same Sales numbers can vary from week to week.

Good Realtors monitor the Sales Activity weekly to keep apprised of Market Activity.  Let’s say we count 20 sales for last week for Single Family Detached Houses within a specific Board Area and then review the Sales Activity for the whole month. 

Then we check that same Sales Total the following month to see the Sales numbers went up by 30% ... not good.  By using the methodology in the REMAX Market Reports (although harder to collect) we get a much cleaner and accurate Sales Count.

What provides the True Picture... Active or Total Monthly Listings?

To provide the most accurate picture of Monthly Sales Activity, the REMAX Market Reports  uses the Starting Monthly Inventory PLUS Newly Listed Properties for that Month PLUS The Expired Listings for that Month PLUS the Canceled and Terminated Listings to create the Total Listings marketed for that month.

Using All Properties Available for Sale during the Month:

15 Sales Out of 100 Total Listings Marketed for the Month= 15 %SOLD rate for the month.

Does the 25 %SOLD rate mean prices will go up or down?

After studying the %SOLD - Sell-Through (absorption) month rates for 28 years we have learned that it totally depends on the previous market history; for example if the market has been a Buyers Market 

Let me explain: In a market with a low 12 %SOLD for months where the average seller is discounting 7% from "list to sell" then they experience a jump to 25 %SOLD those sellers would immediately reduce their discounting and could even result in their homes selling for MORE than the list price.. So here we see a 7% increase in just a few weeks with 25 %SOLD rate.

Then if the market is been records setting high amounts like 35 %SOLD rates and sales at  $40,000 over list and then the sellers are no longer getting multiple offers and are actually coming down 3%. then at 25 %SOLD sold rate prices just drop $50-60 thousand dollars.

Note: the  STR   %SOLD rate is always reported on a monthly rate ..;. so when looking at 2 week reports do remember that the %SOLD rate is adjusted to a 4 week rate so they are relatively consistent.  eg: 2 weeks of sales over Inventory  times 2.2 weeks in a month= the MONTHLY  %%SOLD rate.

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Market Trend Indicators ( MTI )       FAQ Menu

Predicting the Future Market Conditions to Determine the Best Pricing Strategy for Success in any Market

These are the forward projections we use to assist our clients to maximize their sales price based on Increasing or Decreasing Inventory Levels.  It’s a wonderful tool demonstrate to how see 1-2 months into the future.

Very simply;  as New Listings come on each month, we need between 39-64% of THOSE New Listings Amount to sell DURING THAT MONTH.

If the ( MTI ) is LESS than 39% of that NEW Added Inventory SELLING during that same month, then the NEXT MONTH’S Total Listing Inventory will  INCREASE.

OR:

If the ( MTI ) is MORE than 64% of that NEW Added Inventory SELLING during that same month, then the NEXT MONTH’S Total Listing Inventory will  DECREASE.

This is Predictive Market Forecasting, which has been tested and proven over the past 25+ years, and provides a high degree of accuracy. (+/- 3% 17 out of 19 times.)

If the Market Trend Index ( MTI ) is showing a clear pattern of ongoing Increasing Inventories along with Weak Sales Activity (Below 12%), we recommend to “Price Ahead of the Curve” to avoid being drawn with the masses into the probable Downward Market Trend, Get Your Property Sold, and then you can TAKE ADVANTAGE of the future Buyer Market Conditions. 

In a Buyer’s Market, when you have extra inventory on the market and anxious sellers you can get that BEST PROPERTY- BEST LOCATION- GREAT VALUE WIN.

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   Sales Discount Rates ( SDR ) Average (median)                                                                         FAQ Menu                             
 

This is the Difference from the List Price to the Sales Price for this Month’s Sales.  It is the Strongest Indicator of Market changes. Simply put, in a Seller’s Market, we see very little Discount from the List Price to the Sale Price, and in fact, often see properties Selling well in Excess of the Original List Price. 

In a Buyer’s Market we see quite the Reverse, which is Properties Selling for Much Less than the List Price set by the Sellers for their properties.

The Sale Price in both instances is the Market Price.  The Market Price is set by the Market Conditions and Buyers Confidence Level (What an Able Buyer is willing to pay a Seller in a “Arm’s Length” Transaction, at any given time).

The next factor in this equation are the Monthly Price Reductions for Active Listings (which in itself is a very telling indication), where the Sellers recognize that their pricing is Above (too high) the Current Market Conditions. 

The RMR monitors and records both the Average and Median dollar amounts of the Price Reductions for the month, determining the movement of the Sellers (as a Whole Group) towards True Market Pricing.  It is another powerful Tool to assist our Sellers to get Top Market Price.

If a pattern of increasing ( SDR ) Number and Dollar Amounts of the Price Reductions continue, it signifies the Trend is towards Lower Sale Prices.   

The Longer the Seller takes to Respond to the Shifting Market Conditions  ... the Less Money they will realize from the Sale of their property. 

Too often Sellers (and a Lot of Realtors) rely on TV News to inform them of changing Market Conditions before making the required Price Adjustments. Experience has shown, time and again, the News is based on inaccurate Old or at very least Dated information, which they try to Sensationalize for effect.  Not the best way to set a Strategy for Success

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  Projecting Buyer Confidence and Purchasing Capacity                                                                       FAQ Menu            

Different Buyer Groups equal different Consumer Confidences:  Local Buyers confidence are subject to elections, employment and money supply changes where as the foreign investor can be oblivious to such issues.  Case in point: when the S&P downgraded the American credit rating in August 2011, we had an immediate 33% drop in sales in the West Vancouver/Vancouver/Richmond-Chinese corridor area, with virtually NO ONE receiving multiple offers in those markets.  Meanwhile, in the Fraser Valley, the S&P Downgrade made a minimal difference.

Previously it was February 2011, it was the Mainland Chinese Buyers that bolstered the Market Activity.  In February 2012, it was it was the Local Buyers confidence fueling the Market Activity.  This is why we study both Consumer Confidences to provide more accurate Buyer Activity Projections.

 

Government Factors

We all remember the uncertainty caused by the Introduction and then Removal of the HST.  It caused a massive drop in Consumer Confidence throughout all areas of the Economy and in general, un-necessary hardship on the Public.

From a different angle, here in the Lower Mainland, we live in the Jewel of the North American West Coast, offering a temperate climate, with an Economy, Political System, Schools, and Health System, which are the envy of the rest of the World.  People WANT TO LIVE HERE.  New Canadians means NEW MONEY, directly entering our Local Economy.  It is definitely a factor which has affected our ongoing Home Values.

In July of 2012, the Government of Canada suspended the Federal Immigrant Investor Program,  causing an almost immediate slowdown in Market Activity.  This is why we monitor and study Government Policies to allow us to project Market changes and determine Best Strategies for Success. (Note; those investors injected Billions into our economy: we had applications for 3,2000 Immigrants/ year with a minimal net worth of ?1.8 million dollars)

 

Banking Policies: Credit and Money Supply

In July of 2012 the Banking Mortgage rules reduced the 30 year amortization from 30 years to 25 years. This tightening of credit is reputed to have reduced our qualified home purchasers by 20%. Thus we saw a substantial drop in sales over the next 6 months.

 

Economic Indicators/ Employment

Different Economic Indicators are published by different bodies and available for those interested.  An example is below:

Canadian Manufacturing Sales - January 18, 2013

Canadian manufacturing sales increased 1.7 per cent in November, following a 1.4 per cent decline in October.  Sales rose in 12 of 21 manufacturing industries. Adjusting for inflation, Canadian manufacturing sales were 1.6 per cent higher in November. With the release of November's manufacturing and trade data, we estimate that the Canadian economy grew approximately 1.7 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2012.

Sales in the BC Manufacturing Sector rose 1.2 per cent in November, and were 4.3 per cent higher Year-over-Year.  Primary and Fabricated Metal Manufacturing, (which accounts for 13% of BC Manufacturing, was up 4.5% in November, while Forestry Products (30% of BC Manufacturing Sales) were up just under 1 per cent, and Food manufacturing (17% of BC Manufacturing Sales) was up 1 per cent.

We monitor and study Economic Indicators to monitor the ongoing strength of the Canadian and BC Economies, to determine the ability of Local Buyers to purchase.

 

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Are these Accurate Analytics Do you need more proof before trusting the RE/MAX Market Reports or Vancouver Market Reports? We invite you to review the actual data at anytime. Call Us: 1-778-374-3744
This is Your Personal Invitation to Participate in the Solutions: if you love analyzing the market changes and have new ideas on how we can increase our industries professionalism, please step forward and join our Mastermind Group and help out! :) Bill Coughlin

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 Marketing your newsletter
...
 after 14 years of emailing newsletters only ..I Bill Coughlin am now doing printed newsletters once again, because of the dramatic drop in readership due to most clients receiving a complete email overload. The printed newsletter if hand addressed is getting the highest readership!! 

For me the RE/MAX market reports are emailed  every month with about a 20% readership.. post on Facebook and Print every 3 months minimum

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Printing Instructions 

  1. Printing your PDF for Newsletters is real easy.
  2. Open your PDF using the free adobe PDF reader.
  3.  Chose the pages you want print
  4. Chose ACTUAL size  .. NOT FIT
  5. Chose paper orientation=  Landscape 
  6. Print Quality  = Standard for fair quality and High for Best quality
  7. Advance setting chose PRINT as image

Note if  you do not print as an image your words get condensed and may look unreadable

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Assistant Services: Newsletter printing, emailing or office administration:

 

Service offered:

We will print your full color pages for .45 each plus delivery .. 48 hr service

We will MAIL your newsletter for you 

We will email your newsletters for you.. 

.. are doing more office work than actually  talking to clients???  
GL give us your administration tasks and YOU JUST SELL HOMES / Call your clients ..... earning $500/ hour!!!!

Data Fields: DOM, %Discount Rates,

Most data is based on Medians instead of averages and the data  is calculated on Processed date not Sales date.

Days On Market ( DOM is calculated using the median of the all the sales.  In a few cases where their are limited our usual sales eg:  5 sales and 3 of them are 3 days in 0 days, 1 at 118 days and 1 at 18 days we report the median of - days. this would be marked as limited data.

 

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Hi Bill since July about 756 RE/MAX agents have used these reports and the data in their CMA's, Price Reductions and  and News Content that was sent to 10,000's of their clients and now they earned extra commissions. 

OK do step forward and let us help you!  Today these easy to understand "All-In-One" RE/MAX Market Reports will impress your clients and make you $$$'s.

 

Bill, who else are using these reports....read all the recommendations...... and we would sure appreciate your comments on Elton Ash's blog on these RE/MAX Reports  Click Here 

 


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Bill Coughlin                                       TOP 
Realtor and Lifestyle Consultant

1-888-539-4664 (tollfree)
1-778-374-3744

Skype: BillCoughlin
Email: Coughlinb@gmail.com


Website: CoughlinTeam.com
Re/Max City Realty
Abbotsford, Chilliwack, Mission, Langley, Surrey
Serving the Fraser Valley for 20+ years.

Hello  Bill fellow Re/Max Agent.. please enjoy and use these reports to assist you in closing that next listing.
These reports are complied for you for .. volunteers and comments appreciated.  If you would like to sponsor this city let me know.
NOTE:
 This representation is based in whole or in part on data generated by the Real Estate Boards of Greater Vancouver, Fraser Valley, Chilliwack which assume no responsibility for its accuracy.

The VancouverMarketReports.com has even more detailed listing aids (reports every 2 weeks)

 
 

 

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